Apprehensions Versus Crossings

The obligatory link: Guard Presence Drops Illegal Crossings 62 Percent

My first thought, on reading the headline, was, "Wow, that's not bad at all." Upon reading the article, though, I had to question the math. The actual quote is, "Apprehensions of illegal immigrants in the Yuma sector – one of the busiest for the past two years and a top target for the operation – have dropped 62 percent in the last four months compared with the same period a year ago."

Now, obviously, on the face of it, if less people are crossing the border, there are thusly less people to apprehend for crossing the border. The alternatives, of course, have to do with the crossers being more evasive and simply being caught less often. We can certainly hope that it's the former, of course...

Well down the article from there, there is a comment about how armed violence is increasing, as might be expected if the operation was working, and we were drying up the flow of people entering the country (along with various drugs). It's a simple enough statement by itself, and while it certainly could mean that the previous concept of fewer people and fewer drugs getting in is accurate, that doesn't make it necessarily true. (For instance, there could be mitigating factors in Mexico driving the violence along the border which the writer of the article either does not mention, or is not aware of. Not saying that's the case at all, just giving an example.)

In the end, I'd like to believe I'm just nitpicking language here, but time will prove it out, one way or another.